KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI GLOBAL DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN SUMATERA UTARA: ANALISIS SIMULASI DAN STRATEGI KEBIJAKAN

Mela Yunita

doi:10.35760/eb.2025.v30i2.14050

Penulis

Mela Yunita Universitas Surabaya Penulis

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35760/eb.2025.v30i2.14050

Kata Kunci:

Dampak Rambatan, Ekonomi Global, Ekonomi Sumatera, Model Simulasi

Abstrak

Eskalasi ketidakpastian global dipicu oleh adanya percepatan normalisasi kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat dan konflik geopolitik. Kombinasi faktor tersebut menimbulkan efek spillover terhadap perekonomian Indonesia, termasuk Sumatera Utara. Makalah ini membahas dampak ketidakpastian global terhadap perekonomian Sumatera Utara menggunakan pendekatan model makro simultan. Studi ini juga menggunakan simulasi untuk menganalisis efek spillover ekonomi global terhadap Sumatera utara. Estimasi dilakukan berdasarkan data deret waktu tahun 2002–2023. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian Sumatera Utara sangat dipengaruhi oleh ketidakpastian global, terutama melalui jalur perdagangan internasional. Ekspor memiliki peran penting dalam mendorong pertumbuhan PDRB, sedangkan impor tidak signifikan. Konsumsi dan investasi cenderung stabil menghadapi ketidakpastian global, sebaliknya investasi lebih rentan terhadap perubahan Federal Fund Rate (FFR). Hasil Simulasi menunjukkan bahwa faktor eksternal seperti harga minyak, harga internasional, dan nilai tukar mempengaruhi perdagangan dan pertumbuhan. Sementara pengetatan FFR mempengaruhi konsumsi, investasi, dan pertumbuhan di Sumatra Utara.

Unduhan

Data unduhan tidak tersedia.

Referensi

Agénor, P.-R., & da Silva, L. A. P. (2022). Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination. International Economics and Economic Policy, 19(1), 79-127. doi.org: 10.1007/s10368-021-00522-5.

Ainur, A. (2024). Pengaruh ketidakpastian ekonomi global terhadap inflasi, kurs, foreign direct investment (FDI), harga emas, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Perjuangan, 6(1), 43–54. doi.org: 10.36423/jumper.v6i1.1649.

Asian Development Bank. (2021). Asian eevelopment outlook 2021:Financing a green and inclusive recovery. Retrieved from: https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-development-outlook-2021.

Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara. (2024). Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Provinsi Sumatera Utara Menurut Pengeluaran 2019–2023. Retrieved from: https://sumut.bps.go.id/id/publication/2024/04/04/cb2a97a8adf77f0bda1af53f/produk-domestik-regional-bruto-provinsi-sumatera-utara-menurut-pengeluaran-2019-2023.html.

Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara. (2022). Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Provinsi Sumatera Utara menurut Lapangan Usaha 2017–2021. Retrieved from: https://sumut.bps.go.id/id/publication/2022/04/05/076c53dc0d000201554c9cb8/produk-domestik-regional-bruto-provinsi-sumatera-utara-menurut-lapangan-usaha-2017-2021.html

Bank Indonesia. (2017). Kajian stabilitas keuangan: Mitigasi risiko sistemik melalui penguatan koordinasi antar institusi di tengah konsolidasi perekonomian domestik. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.

Bank Indonesia. (2023). Laporan perekonomian Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2023. Retrieved from: https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/lpp/Pages/Laporan-Perekonomian-Provinsi-Sumatera-Utara-2023.aspx.

Basri, M. C., & Rahardja, S. (2010). The Indonesian economy amidst the global crisis: Good policy and good luck. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 27(1), 77–97.

Chow, J., Jaumotte, F., Park, S. G., & Zhang, Y. S. Z. (2016). Spillovers from dollar appreciation. Washington DC: International Monetery Fund.

Dagume, M. A. (2022). Exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic variables in South Africa. International Journal of Economics and Financial, 12(6), 1-14. doi.org:10.32479/ijefi.13446.

Darinda, D., & Permana, F.C. (2019). Volatility spillover effects in ASEAN-5 stock market: Does the different oil price era change the pattern? Kajian Ekonomi Keuangan, 3(2),116-134. doi.org:10.31685/kek.V3i1.484.

Fajgelbaum, P. D., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2022). The economic impacts of the US-China trade war. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 205–228. doi.org:10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-110410.

Georgiadis, G. (2016). Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41–61. doi.org:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.010.

Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). United States: McGraw-Hill Education.

Makore, I. & Chikutuma, C.N., (2025). Exchange rate volatility and its impact on international trade: Evidence from Zimbabwe. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(7), 1-16. doi:org: 10.3390/jrfm18070376.

Lastauskas, P., & Nguyen, A. D. M. (2024). Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 92, 1-31. doi.org:10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101956.

Sun, L. & Wang, Y. (2021). Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era. Resources Policy, 74, 102393. doi.org:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102393

Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Rey, H. (2020). U.S. monetary policy and the global financial cycle. Review of Economic Studies, 87(6), 2754–2776. doi.org:10.1093/restud/rdaa019.

Plakandaras, V., Gogas, P., & Papadimitriou, T. (2019). The effects of geopolitical uncertainty in forecasting financial markets: A machine learning approach. Algorithms, 12(1), 1–13. doi.org/10.3390/a12010001.

Prasmuko, A., & Anugrah, D. F. (2010). Dampak krisis keuangan global terhadap perekonomian daerah. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 12(3), 349–382. doi.org: 10.21098/bemp.v12i3.242

Putra, Y. N. S., Wahyo, W., Arifin, Z., Yulia, N., & Rozali, M. (2024). Economic risk management strategies in the face of global uncertainty: A documentation study on Indonesia’s economic policy. Journal of Economic, Business and Accounting, 7(6), 7266–7273.

Rai, V., & Suchanek, L. (2014). The effect of the Federal Reserve’s tapering announcements on emerging markets (Bank of Canada Working Paper). Canada: Bank of Canada.

Safuan, S., Habibullah, M. S., & Sugandi, E. A. (2021). Mitigating the shadow economy through financial sector development in Indonesia: Some empirical results. Heliyon, 7(12), 1-13. doi.org:10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08633.

Santacreu, A. M., & Peake, M. (2020). The economic effects of the 2018 U.S. trade policy: A state-level analysis. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 102(4), 385–412. doi.org: 10.20955/r.102.385-412.

Setiastuti, S. U. (2017). Time‑varying macroeconomic impacts of global economic policy uncertainty to a small open economy: Evidence from Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 20(2), 393–410. doi:org:10.21098/bemp.v20i2.809.

Wardhono, A., Arisandi, D & Nasir, M. A. (2018). Empirical study of scapegoat theory paradigm in the exchange rate variable in the ASEAN 5. International Economic Journal, 32(1), 102–119. doi.org: 10.1080/10168737.2018.1446998.

Zhai, F., & Morgan, P. (2016). Impact of The People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis. ADBI Working Paper Series. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.