MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) DALAM PERAMALAN NILAI HARGA SAHAM PENUTUP INDEKS LQ45
Universitas Gunadarma
Indonesia
Universitas Gunadarma
Indonesia
Abstract
Data indeks LQ45 dapat digunakan membantu manajer investasi, investor ataupun calon investor terkait dalam proses perencanaan dan proses pengambilan keputusan dalam membeli ataupun menjual saham. Oleh karena itu data LQ45 memiliki peran penting dalam melakukan peramalan untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut. Peramalan deret waktu (time series) menggunakan penerapan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) untuk meramalkan nilai harga saham penutup dalam Indeks LQ45 pada data mingguan. Data yang digunakan merupakan data dari 25 November 2019 sampai dengan 30 November 2020. Hasil pengujian model terbaik adalah ARIMA(1,1,1). Model ARIMA(1,1,1) terpilih karena memenuhi asumsi dan didukung oleh nilai Adjusted R-squared, nilai S.E. of regression, Akaike Info Criterion dan Schwarz Criterion. Hasil peramalan jangka pendek selama 2 bulan ke depan (7 Desember 2020 sampai 25 Januari 2021) yang didapat dari model ARIMA(1,1,1) mendekati data aktual dengan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yang paling kecil yaitu 18.41269.
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