KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI GLOBAL DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN SUMATERA UTARA: ANALISIS SIMULASI DAN STRATEGI KEBIJAKAN
Universitas Surabaya (Ubaya)
Indonesia
Abstract
Eskalasi ketidakpastian global dipicu oleh adanya percepatan normalisasi kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat dan konflik geopolitik. Kombinasi faktor tersebut menimbulkan efek spillover terhadap perekonomian Indonesia, termasuk Sumatera Utara. Makalah ini membahas dampak ketidakpastian global terhadap perekonomian Sumatera Utara menggunakan pendekatan model makro simultan. Studi ini juga menggunakan simulasi untuk menganalisis efek spillover ekonomi global terhadap Sumatera utara. Estimasi dilakukan berdasarkan data deret waktu tahun 2002–2023. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian Sumatera Utara sangat dipengaruhi oleh ketidakpastian global, terutama melalui jalur perdagangan internasional. Ekspor memiliki peran penting dalam mendorong pertumbuhan PDRB, sedangkan impor tidak signifikan. Konsumsi dan investasi cenderung stabil menghadapi ketidakpastian global, sebaliknya investasi lebih rentan terhadap perubahan Federal Fund Rate (FFR). Hasil Simulasi menunjukkan bahwa faktor eksternal seperti harga minyak, harga internasional, dan nilai tukar mempengaruhi perdagangan dan pertumbuhan. Sementara pengetatan FFR mempengaruhi konsumsi, investasi, dan pertumbuhan di Sumatra Utara.
Keywords
References
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