ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI MELALUI JALUR TRANSMISI CURRENT ACCOUNT DAN CAPITAL INFLOW DI INDONESIA
Abstract
Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan sebagai salah satu indikator ekonomi yang harus di optimalkan dalam menjaga kestabilan perekonomian di Indonesia. hal ini perlu dilakukan karena dalam beberapa tahun terakhir pemerintah Indonesia belum mampu mengoptimalkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sesuai dengan target pertumbuhan yang ingin dicapai setiap tahunnya. Dalam artikel ini, kami memberikan analisis empiris tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia selama periode 2001-2021, dengan mempertimbangkan variabel-variabel makro seperti inflasi, nilai tukar, inflasi, dan suku bunga yang mungkin mempengaruhi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik melalui jalur transmisi capital inflow maupun current account. Dengan mengadopsi model estimasi Two Stage Least Squared (TSLS), kami menemukan bahwa harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui capital inflow, sedangkan melalui jalur current account, variabel harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar dan suku bunga yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Berdasarkan temuan ini, kami menyarankan bahwa dalam penyusunan kebijakan optimalisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi sesuai dengan target yang dirumuskan, pemerintah harus mempertimbangkan fluktuasi harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah, dan suku bunga, karena variabel-variabel tersebut dapat mempengaruhi volatilitas pertumbuhan ekonomi secara tidak langsung.
Keywords
References
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